NARDL short-run estimates for the determinants of international reserves
| Variables | Model 1 | Model 2 |
|---|---|---|
| ECT (−1) | −0.54** (0.206) | −1.305*** (0.313) |
| ΔlnRES(t - 1) | −0.10 (0.182) | 0.494* (0.255) |
| ΔVolex_POS | 0.008 (0.012) | – |
| ΔVolex_NEG | 0.052* (0.027) | – |
| ΔVolex_NEG(t - 1) | 0.013 (0.009) | – |
| ΔVolimp_POS | – | −0.436 (0.372) |
| ΔVolimp_NEG | – | 0.609 (0.374) |
| ΔVoler_POS | −0.038** (0.017) | −0.031 (0.101) |
| ΔVoler_POS(t - 1) | −0.086** (0.038) | – |
| ΔVoler_NEG | 0.045** (0.020) | −0.069 (0.048) |
| ΔlnPCI | −1.172** (0.496) | 0.039 (0.499) |
| ΔlnSTD | 0.767** (0.305) | 0.095 (0.117) |
| ΔlnOILP | – | −0.215 (0.192) |
| lnMS | – | 0.892** (0.426) |
| lnIR | – | 0.022 (0.036) |
| COVID-Dummy | – | 0.484 (0.326) |
| Constant | 21.98** (10.525) | −3.09 (4.904) |
| Ṝ2 | 0.534 | 0.48 |
| D-W stat | 2.01 | 1.59 |
| F-Stat | 3.16 (0.018) | 3.05 (0.017) |
| Variables | Model 1 | Model 2 |
|---|---|---|
| −0.54 | −1.305 | |
| −0.10 (0.182) | 0.494 | |
| 0.008 (0.012) | – | |
| 0.052 | – | |
| 0.013 (0.009) | – | |
| – | −0.436 (0.372) | |
| – | 0.609 (0.374) | |
| −0.038 | −0.031 (0.101) | |
| −0.086 | – | |
| 0.045 | −0.069 (0.048) | |
| −1.172 | 0.039 (0.499) | |
| 0.767 | 0.095 (0.117) | |
| – | −0.215 (0.192) | |
| – | 0.892 | |
| – | 0.022 (0.036) | |
| – | 0.484 (0.326) | |
| 21.98 | −3.09 (4.904) | |
| Ṝ2 | 0.534 | 0.48 |
| 2.01 | 1.59 | |
| 3.16 (0.018) | 3.05 (0.017) |
Note(s): This table displays the results of error correction mechanism and effect of various determinants on gross international reserves in the short-run where ***, ** and * indicate the level of significance (rejecting null hypothesis) at the 1, 5 and 10% levels, respectively. The numbers within parentheses are standard errors
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