Figure 5
A figure of six line graphs shows responses of M 0, L T I R, E X R, L O A N, C P I, and G D P to M 2 with confidence bands.The figure shows six line graphs arranged in three rows. The details of each graph are as follows: Row 1: First graph: The graph has the title “Response of M 2 to M 2.” The vertical axis ranges from negative 1 to 2 in increments of 0.5. The horizontal axis ranges from numbers 1 to 12 in increments of 1. The graph shows a single line and its two confidence lines, one above and one below it. The details of the lines are as follows: The main line starts at (1, 1.554), falls steeply with a negative slope to (2, negative 0.153), increases to (3, 0.069). The line then stays parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0). The upper confidence line starts at (1, 0.792), falls steeply with a negative slope to (2, 0.218), slightly increases to (3, 0.248), falls to (4, 0.084), then becomes almost parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0.025). The lower confidence line starts at (1, 1.317), falls steeply with a negative slope to (2, negative 0.569), increases with a positive slope to (3, negative 0.109), increases slightly to (4, negative 0.064), and then becomes almost parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, negative 0.005). Second graph: The graph has the title “Response of L T I R to M 2.” The vertical axis ranges from negative 0.4 to 0.3 in increments of 0.1. The horizontal axis ranges from numbers 1 to 12 in increments of 1. The graph shows a single line and its two confidence lines, one above and one below it. The details of the lines are as follows: The main line starts at (1, negative 0.145), increases steeply with a positive slope to (2, 0.008), then slightly increases to (3, 0.035). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0). The upper confidence line starts at (1, 0.058), increases steeply with a positive slope to (2, 0.237), then falls to (4, 0.055). The line passes through (5, negative 0.038), and then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0.015). The lower confidence line starts at (1, negative 0.34), increases steeply with a positive slope to (3, negative 0.082), then rises to (4, negative 0.038) and (5, negative 0.022). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, negative 0.005). Row 2: Third graph: The graph has the title “Response of E X R to M 2.” The vertical axis ranges from negative 0.1 to 0.6 in increments of 0.1. The horizontal axis ranges from numbers 1 to 12 in increments of 1. The graph shows a single line and its two confidence lines, one above and one below it. The details of the lines are as follows: The main line starts at (1, 0.309), slightly decreases to (2, 0.258), then steeply decreases to (3, negative 0.096), (4, 0.039), and (5, 0.008). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, negative 0.022). The upper confidence line starts at (1, 0.573), stays flat to (2, 0.58), then decreases steeply to (3, 0.245). The line continues further in a concave-up manner passing through (4, 0.133), (6, 0.083). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0.032). The lower confidence line starts at (1, 0049), decreases to (2, negative 0.07). The line increases gradually passing through (5, negative 0.08), (9, negative 0.046), and ends at (12, negative 0.039). Fourth graph: The graph has the title “Response of L O A N to M 2.” The vertical axis ranges from negative 0.4 to 1.2 in increments of 0.2. The horizontal axis ranges from numbers 1 to 12 in increments of 1. The graph shows a single line and its two confidence lines, one above and one below it. The details of the lines are as follows: The main line starts at (1, 0.608), decreases slightly to (2, 0.092), then decreases steeper to (5, 0.023). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0.00). The upper confidence line starts at (1, 1.123), decreases with a negative slope to (2, 0.954), then decreases with a steeper slope (3, 0.323). The line then decreases in concave manner to (4, 0.185), (5, 0.108). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0.085). The lower confidence line starts at (1, 0.092), decreases to (2, negative 0.223), then increases, passing through (3, negative 0.169), (4, negative 0.092), and (5, negative 0.077). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, negative 0.015). Row 3: Fifth graph: The graph has the title “Response of C P I to M 2.” The vertical axis ranges from negative 0.10 to 0.25 in increments of 0.05. The horizontal axis ranges from numbers 1 to 12 in increments of 1. The graph shows a single line and its two confidence lines, one above and one below it. The details of the lines are as follows: The main line starts at (1, 0.041), increases in a concave-up manner to (2, 0.084). The line then decreases in a concave up manner to reach (3, 0.034), (5, 0.014). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0.004). The upper confidence line starts at (1, 0.141), increases to (2, 0.217), then decreases in a concave-up manner passing through (3, 0.105) and (5, 0.043). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, 0.031). The lower confidence line starts at (1, negative 0.059), increases to (2, negative 0.034), then continues to increases passing through (5, negative 0.021), and (7, negative 0.014). The line then becomes parallel to the horizontal axis and ends at (12, negative 0.009). Sixth graph: The graph has the title “Response of G D P to M 2.” The vertical axis ranges from negative 0.50 to 0.30 in increments of 0.1. The horizontal axis ranges from numbers 1 to 12 in increments of 1. The graph shows a single line and its two confidence lines, one above and one below it. The details of the lines are as follows: The main line starts at (1, negative 0.005), decreases in a concave up manner to (2, negative 0.062), then continues downward to (3, negative 0.092). It rises slightly in a concave up manner passing through (6, negative 0.096), (10, negative 0.081) and ends at (12, negative 0.058). The upper confidence line starts at (1, 0.182), increases with a positive slope to (2, 0.254), then decreases continuously passing through (6, 0.205) and (9, 0.197), and ends at (12, 0.19). The lower confidence line starts at (1, negative 0.21), decreases to (2, negative 0.374), then decreases further in a concave-up manner passing through (4, negative 0.439), increases to (7, negative 0.386), and ends at (12, negative 0.306). Note: All numerical values are approximated.

Impulse responses to M2 growth shock (VARX: M2). Note: Dotted lines (red) represent ± 2 SE confidence bands, which are drawn from 2,000 repetitions. Source: Authors’ own work

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