Figure 4
A diagram shows how past vulnerabilities, present dynamics, and future aspirations shape post-wildfire tourism.The figure presents an integrated framework combining the Pressure and Release model and the Futures Triangle, organized into five labeled parts from “A” to “E”, with overarching headings at the top reading “Weights of the Past”, “Pushes of the Present”, and “Pulls of the Future”. In the center bottom of the figure, part “(A)” is shown and is labeled “Progression of Vulnerability”, which contains three horizontally arranged sections labeled from left to right as “Root Causes”, “Dynamic Pressures”, and “Unsafe Conditions”. The “Root Causes” section contains the following text: “Economic reliance on tourism; foreign market dominance”, “Underfunded institutions”, “Historical fire suppression and pine beetle impacts”, “Severe housing shortage and limited development capacity”, “Precarious, low-wage, seasonal employment”, “Centralized, fragmented governance systems”, and “Exclusion of marginalized and Indigenous voices”. The “Dynamic Pressures” section contains the following text: “Market concentration and small business decline”, “Overlapping crises stretching institutional capacity”, “Rising wildfire risk from climate change”, “Housing deficit and soaring rental costs”, “Labour shortages, burnout, and turnover”, “Reactive, risk-averse governance systems”, and “Uneven access to support and resources”. The “Unsafe Conditions” section contains the following text: “Uneven COVID recovery; rise of foreign ownership”, “Under-resourced agencies”, “Extreme heat, drought, and fuel accumulation”, “Limited housing options and high housing costs”, “Low wages, seasonal employment, and labour shortages”, “Centralized, top-down governance mechanisms”, and “Deepening social inequity”. To the immediate right of these three sections, a vertical element labeled “Hazard” is shown, containing a circular element labeled “Risk equals Hazard x Vulnerability”, which connects to a rectangular box labeled “2024 Jasper Wildfire Complex”. Above this central section, part “(B)” is shown. It is illustrated as a clustered circular diagram centered on a circle labeled “Structural Vulnerabilities”. Surrounding this central circle are seven overlapping circles arranged in a circular pattern. Starting from the upper left and moving clockwise, the surrounding circles are labeled “Climate Risk”, “Housing Insecurity”, “Workforce Precarity”, “Governance Misalignment”, “Social Inequity”, “Economic Fragility”, and “Institutional Strain”. Each of these circles overlaps with the central circle labeled “Structural Vulnerabilities”. On the top right, part “(C)” is shown under the heading of the pull of the future. It is labeled “Future Values” and contains text “Stewardship”, “Connection”, “Authenticity”, “Climate Resilience”, “Equity”, and “Flexibility”. Part “(D)” is positioned between the pushes of the present and the pulls of the future and is labeled “Changes Required”. The text within this section lists “Shift Growth Model”, “Strengthen Equity”, “Reform Governance”, “Embed Climate Action”, “Diversify Economy”, “Address Housing Shortage”, “Build Institutional Capacity”, and “Support Workforce”. Part “(E)” is shown below Part “(C)” and is labeled “Barriers”. This section includes text “Risk Aversion”, “Governance Fragmentation”, “Resource and Capacity Constraints”, “Geographic Isolation”, “Inequitable Representation”, and “Power Asymmetries”. On the right side of the figure, a vertical double-sided arrow appears, with the top labeled “Alternative futures” and the bottom labeled “Business as usual”.

Integrated framework combining the PAR model and the Futures Triangle to illustrate how past vulnerabilities, present recovery dynamics and future aspirations intersect in Jasper's post-wildfire tourism system. (a) Shows the progression of vulnerability that amplified disaster risk in the tourism system, which is central to the PAR model. (b) Depicts the weights of the past (i.e. structural vulnerabilities that continue to shape present conditions), alongside elements of the pushes of the present, where certain current dynamics are intensifying these vulnerabilities. (c) Identifies the pulls of the future, representing desired values and aspirations for Jasper's future tourism system. (d) Highlights the changes required to realize these desired futures. (e) Identifies persistent barriers that constrain change and risk keeping the system locked in business-as-usual trajectories

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