Figure 5.
The G D P growth is presented on the vertical axis and tau on the horizontal axis. Panel A is titled One quarter ahead: 2010 colon Q 2. Panel B is titled One quarter ahead: 2015 colon Q 4. Panel C is titled One quarter ahead: 2020 colon Q 4. Panel D is titled One year ahead: 2010 colon Q 2. Panel E is titled One year ahead: 2015 colon Q 4. Panel F is titled One year ahead: 2020 colon Q 4. Each panel contains three lines labelled G D P and climate, G D P only, and Raw. In Panels A, D and E, G D P growth increases from approximately 3 to above 6 as tau rises from about 0.1 to 0.9. In Panel B, G D P growth declines gradually from about 6 to near 5 across tau. In Panel C, G D P growth rises sharply from around minus 2 to above 6 as tau increases. In Panel F, G D P growth rises from about minus 15 to around 4 as tau increases. Legends identifying the three lines appear within each panel.The conditional quantile and skewed t-distribution
Note(s): This figure plots the estimated conditional quantile distribution (raw) and two variations of the fitted inverse cumulative skewed t-distribution, one conditional on both GDP growth and Climate and the other conditional on GDP growth only, for three sample dates: 2010:Q2 – which depicts the start of recovery from an extreme point in climate condition; 2015:Q4 – which depicts presence of extreme climate condition; and 2020:Q4 – which depicts full recovery from the deepest dip in real GDP growth rate (annualised)