Figure 3
A Bayesian network diagram shows ship, weather, and response factors linked to attack success probabilities.The network diagram shows multiple rectangular nodes connected by directional arrows around a central purple node labeled “Attack Success”. Inside the central node are the values “Yes 42.0” and “No 58.0”. At the top center is a node labeled “Reporting The Incident” with values “Yes 91.0” and “No 8.99”. To its right is a node labeled “External Support” with values “Yes 92.8” and “No 7.17”. A two-headed arrow connects “Reporting The Incident” and “External Support”. At the upper left is a node labeled “Crew Response” with values “Yes 85.7” and “No 14.3”. On the left side is a node labeled “Ship Area Boarded” with values: “MainDeck 23.2”, “StoreRoom 3.56”, “EngineRoom 23.6”, “SteeringGearRoom 2.72”, “Barge 13.2”, “Accomodation 1.93”, “PoopDeck 2.45”, “Other 0.92”, and “NotBoarded 28.4”. Below it is a node labeled “Number of Pirates” with values: “OneToFour 58.2”, “FiveToTen 38.7”, and “MoreThanTen 3.09”. At the bottom left is a node labeled “Steaming or Anchoring” with values “Steaming 86.9” and “Anchoring 13.1”. At the bottom center is a node labeled “Ship Type” with values: “BulkCarrier 36.0”, “Container 4.08”, “GeneralCargo 3.58”, “Tanker 30.0”, “Tug 24.0”, and “Other 2.31”. On the upper right side is a node labeled “Naval Support” with values: “AfterIncident 26.4”, “DuringIncident 6.69”, and “NoSupport 66.9”. Below it is a node labeled “Time” with values: “MorningAfternoon 13.9”, “AfternoonEvening 11.1”, “EveningNight 21.9”, and “NightMorning 53.0”. Further down is a node labeled “Rain Intensity” with values: “Light 76.1”, “Moderate 14.6”, “Heavy 3.44”, and “VeryHeavy 5.87”. At the lower right is a node labeled “Wind” with values: “Light 38.0”, “Moderate 50.7”, and “Heavy 11.3”. Arrows connect the surrounding nodes from the central node “Attack Success”. Arrows also connect several surrounding nodes to each other. Arrows point from “Ship Area Boarded” to “Crew Response”, “Number of Pirates”, “Naval Support”, “Time”, “Rain Intensity”, and “Wind”. An arrow points from “Steaming or Anchoring” to “Ship Type”. An arrow points from “External Support” to “Naval Support”.

Tree-augmented network of S1 under 25% scenario

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