Figure 5
A Bayesian network diagram links ship, environmental, and response factors to attack success probabilities.The network diagram shows multiple rectangular nodes connected by directional arrows around a central purple node labeled “Attack Success”. Inside the central node are the values “Yes 13.9” and “No 86.1”. At the top center is a node labeled “Reporting The Incident” with values “Yes 97.1” and “No 2.94”. To its right is a node labeled “External Support” with values “Yes 97.6” and “No 2.42”. A two-headed arrow connects “Reporting The Incident” and “External Support”. At the upper left is a node labeled “Crew Response” with values “Yes 97.6” and “No 2.43”. On the left side is a node labeled “Ship Area Boarded” with values: “MainDeck 7.73”, “StoreRoom 1.19”, “EngineRoom 7.87”, “SteeringGearRoom 0.91”, “Barge 4.40”, “Accomodation 0.64”, “PoopDeck 0.82”, “Other 0.31”, and “NotBoarded 76.1”. Below it is a node labeled “Number of Pirates” with values: “OneToFour 59.8”, “FiveToTen 38.1”, and “MoreThanTen 2.12”. At the bottom left is a node labeled “Steaming or Anchoring” with values “Steaming 86.2” and “Anchoring 13.8”. At the bottom center is a node labeled “Ship Type” with values: “BulkCarrier 35.6”, “Container 6.29”, “GeneralCargo 6.12”, “Tanker 35.3”, “Tug 15.6”, and “Other 1.04”. On the upper right side is a node labeled “Naval Support” with values: “AfterIncident 24.7”, “DuringIncident 6.56”, and “NoSupport 68.7”. Below it is a node labeled “Time” with values: “MorningAfternoon 21.3”, “AfternoonEvening 20.4”, “EveningNight 23.9”, and “NightMorning 34.4”. Further down is a node labeled “Rain Intensity” with values: “Light 73.6”, “Moderate 17.8”, “Heavy 3.90”, and “VeryHeavy 4.76”. At the lower right is a node labeled “Wind” with values: “Light 35.1”, “Moderate 39.2”, and “Heavy 25.7”. Arrows from the central node point toward the surrounding nodes. Arrows also connect several surrounding nodes to each other. Arrows point from “Ship Area Boarded” to “Crew Response”, “Number of Pirates”, “Naval Support”, “Time”, “Rain Intensity”, and “Wind”. An arrow points from “Steaming or Anchoring” to “Ship Type”. An arrow points from “External Support” to “Naval Support”.

Tree-augmented network of S1 under the 75% scenario

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