Figure 9
The four panels are arranged in two rows and two columns, with titles “Regime 1” for the top row and “Regime 2” for the bottom row. The top left panel labeled “(a)” shows a bar chart with a horizontal axis labeled “Period” and tick labels from 0 to 10 in increments of 1, and a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 100 in increments of 20. A legend below shows “r” and “M C I underscore c n t”. The title reads “vd upward arrow points to r”. The bars for “r” remain near 100 across all periods, while the bars for “M C I underscore c n t” remain near 0 across all periods. The top right panel labeled “(b)” shows a bar chart with a horizontal axis labeled “Period” and tick labels from 0 to 10 in increments of 1, and a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 100 in increments of 20. A legend below shows “r” and “M C I underscore c n t”. The title reads “vd upward arrow points to M C I underscore c n t”. The bars for “M C I underscore c n t” start near 90 at period 1 and decline toward around 5 by period 10, while the bars for “r” start near 100 at period 1 and decline toward around 100 by period 4 and remain near that level through period 10. The bottom left panel labeled “(c)” shows a bar chart with a horizontal axis labeled “Period” and tick labels from 0 to 10 in increments of 1, and a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 60 in increments of 20. A legend below shows “r” and “M C I underscore c n t”. The title reads “vd upward arrow points to r”. The bars for “r” start near 10 at period 1 and increase toward around 60 by period 6 and remain near that level through period 10, while the bars for “M C I underscore c n t” remain near 0 until around period 5 and then rise gradually toward around 10 by period 10. The bottom right panel labeled “(d)” shows a bar chart with a horizontal axis labeled “Period” and tick labels from 0 to 10 in increments of 1, and a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 100 in increments of 20. A legend below shows “r” and “M C I underscore c n t”. The title reads “vd upward arrow points to M C I underscore c n t”. The bars for “M C I underscore c n t” start near 90 at period 1 and decline toward around 40 by period 5 and remain near that level through period 10, while the bars for “r” start near 0 at period 1 and increase toward around 60 by period 6 and remain near that level through period 10. Note: All numerical data values are approximated.Variance decomposition of MCI_cnt. Variance decomposition provides insights into the relative contributions of different economic shocks to macroeconomic fluctuation. Figure created by the authors, data source from FRED (2025) and SARB (2025a, b)