Figure 5
The horizontal axis is labeled “Month” and ranges from January 2018 to September 2022 in increments of 2 months. The vertical axis is labeled “Monthly number of tourists” and ranges from 0 to 150000 in increments of 20000. Two series are shown: TOURTOTAL and S A R I M A X MODEL. Both are represented by lines with markers. The TOURTOTAL series shows strong seasonal variation. It starts near 23000 in January 2018, rises to 107000 in August 2018, then declines to 28000 by January 2019. It rises again to 90000 in May 2019 and 103000 in August 2019, then falls through late 2019. In 2020, values drop sharply to near 0 from April to June 2020, recover to 48000 in August 2020, then decline again. During early 2021, values remain low near 5000 to 15000, then rise sharply to 99000 in August 2021 before falling to 25000 by January 2022. In 2022, the series rises again, reaching 115000 in August 2022 and ending near 104000 in September 2022. The S A R I M A X MODEL series begins around January 2019 near 20000. It rises steadily to 63000 in August 2019, then declines to 17000 by early 2020. It increases irregularly through mid 2020, reaching 50000 in August 2020, then decreases to 18000 by late 2020. During 2021, the values fluctuate upward, peaking near 92000 in August 2021, then decline to 35000 by January 2022. In 2022, the model rises again, reaching 100000 in August 2022 before easing slightly to 94000 in September 2022. A vertical dashed line appears at January 2022, marking a division between earlier and later periods. Overall, both series show repeating seasonal peaks around midyear, and the S A R I M A X MODEL follows the observed TOURTOTAL pattern more closely than the earlier model. Note: All numerical values are approximated.Forecast of tourist demand using SARIMAX model with Twitter data