Figure 8
The panel a shows load, estimated values, seasonal naive values, and average temperature against date from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018. Load varies between about 9 and 24 multiplied by 100000 A. Estimated values follow the load pattern with step-like transitions between lower and higher levels. Seasonal naive values track the load with similar fluctuations. Average temperature ranges from about negative 3 to 47 degrees Celsius and follows a repeating annual cycle. Panel b shows load, forecast values, seasonal naive values, and average temperature against date from 1 January 2019 to late 2019. Load decreases from about 23 to near 9, then rises towards about 20 near the end of the year. Forecast values follow the overall load trend with short fluctuations. Seasonal naive values remain close to the load pattern. Average temperature increases from winter values to a summer peak and then decreases towards the end of the year.Estimated and forecasted load consumptions (a) estimation on training data, (b) forecasts on test data