Figure 10
A histogram showing the posterior mean distribution of 1,000 samples. The x-axis represents the difference in means between post-1984 and the rest, ranging from approximately -0.7 to 0.0. The y-axis represents the density, ranging from 0.0 to 3.5. The histogram has multiple vertical bars, indicating the frequency of different differences in means. The mean difference is marked with a red dashed line at -0.35. The 2.5 percentage quantile is marked with a blue dashed line at -0.57, and the 97.5 percentage quantile is marked with a blue dashed line at -0.12. The distribution appears to be roughly symmetric with a peak around the mean difference.Posterior mean distribution (1,000 samples): post-1984–2024 against the rest