Figure 11
A histogram represents the distribution of the difference in means between post-20142023 and the rest. The histogram has 20 vertical bars, each representing a bin of data. The horizontal axis is labeled Difference in Means (Post - Pre) and ranges from approximately -0.3 to 0.4. The vertical axis is labeled Density and ranges from 0.0 to 3.5. The histogram shows a roughly symmetrical distribution centered around a mean difference of 0.04, indicated by a red dashed line. The 2.5 percent quantile is marked at -0.17, and the 97.5 percent quantile is marked at 0.29, both indicated by blue dashed lines. The highest density is observed around the mean difference, with the distribution tapering off towards the extremes. The color of the bars is green.Posterior mean distribution (1,000 samples): post-2014–2023 against the rest