Figure 3.
A circular framework links M C S controls, external shocks, operational capacity, C P O price volatility and resilience responses.The circular framework places M C S as a package at the centre, surrounded by planning, cybernetic, administrative, reward and cultural controls. An outer layer of External Resilience Controls, or E R Cs, includes climate resilience controls, technology-driven controls, and geopolitical and legitimacy controls. Climate and biological volatility represents supply-side shocks from weather and E N S O, pests and disease, and biological cycles. Technological and operational capacity covers mill capacity and O E R, mechanisation and A I, and labour availability. Geopolitical and market forces represent demand and policy shocks from trade and regulations, biofuel mandates, and currency and oil prices. External signals include climate data, A I systems and geopolitical trends. The framework links C P O price volatility with yields, efficiency and market access, and produces operational and financial resilience responses.

Mapping external drivers of CPO price variability to ERC mechanisms

Source: Author’s own work

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