Figure 11
The line graph consists of a horizontal axis which is labeled from left to right as follows: “March-2022”, “May-2022”, “July-2022”, “September-2022”, “November-2022”, “January-2023”, “March-2023”, “May-2023”, “July-2023”, “September-2023”, “November-2023”, “January-2024”, “March-2024”, “May-2024”, “July-2024”, “September-2024”, “November-2024”, “January-2025”, “March-2025”, “May-2025”, “July-2025”, “September-2025”. The vertical axis on the left is labeled “dollar per ton” and ranges from 0 to 800 in increments of 100 units. The legend at the top includes five lines: a thick black line for “Target”, an orange line for “Holdout underscore 24 features”, a grey line for “Holdout underscore 6 features”, a yellow line for “Holdout underscore 3 features”, and a blue line for “ARIMAX (1,1,1)”. A vertical blue line is positioned at “March-2025”, and to the right of this line, blue text reads “forecast period”. The data from the graph is as follows: The black line labeled “Target” begins at its peak of (March-2022, 650), passes through several points showing a sharp downward trend to (January-2023, 370), rises to a secondary peak at (September-2023, 580), and then terminates at (September-2025, 430). The orange line labeled “Holdout underscore 24 features” begins at (March-2022, 540), passes through several points reaching a local peak at (May-2022, 570), declines to its lowest point at (November-2022, 330), and then terminates at (September-2025, 400). The grey line labeled “Holdout underscore 6 features” begins at (March-2022, 610), passes through several points with an immediate peak at (May-2022, 665), follows the general decline into 2023, and then terminates at (September-2025, 410). The yellow line labeled “Holdout underscore 3 features” begins at its peak of (March-2022, 640), passes through several points, and then terminates at (September-2025, 420). The blue line labeled “A R I M A X (1, 1, 1)” begins at (March-2022, 655), passes through several points reaching its maximum value at (May-2022, 720), remains the highest-positioned line for the remainder of the graph, and then terminates at (September-2025, 450). Note: All the numerical data values are approximated.Test results for each model. Source: Authors