Figure 6
The line graph displays the AME posterior means for AfT dyad coefficients under the log-difference specification from 2004 to 2021. The x-axis represents the years from 2004 to 2021, and the y-axis represents the posterior mean coefficient values ranging from negative 0.05 to 0.10. The graph includes two data lines: a blue solid line representing AfT sent with a 95% credible interval ribbon, and a red dashed line representing AfT received with a 95% credible interval ribbon. The coefficients oscillate around zero, indicating that AfT operates through long-run structural channels rather than year-to-year variation. The blue solid line and ribbon show the mean and 95% credible interval for AfT sent, while the red dashed line and ribbon show the mean and 95% credible interval for AfT received. The graph illustrates the fluctuations and trends in the coefficients over the specified period. All values are approximated.AME posterior means for AfT dyad coefficients under the log-difference (delta) specification, 2004–2021. Blue solid line and ribbon = AfT sent (mean and 95% CI); red dashed line and ribbon = AfT received (mean and 95% CI). Coefficients oscillate around zero, consistent with AfT operating through long-run structural channels rather than year-to-year variation