Figure 4
The image contains three graphs. The top graph is a line graph showing the isotonic-calibrated onset probability with a horizontal dashed threshold of 0.285. The middle graph is a line graph displaying the framework onset probability with a horizontal dashed threshold of 0.560. The bottom graph is a line graph representing the AI Index price. Red-shaded regions indicate ground-truth crisis windows, and dotted vertical lines mark drawdown onsets. Green-filled regions with circle markers show anticipatory detections up to nine days prior to onset, while orange-filled regions with diamond markers indicate confirmatory detections within five days after onset. The top graph's y-axis ranges from 0 to 0.5, representing calibrated probability. The middle graph's y-axis ranges from 0 to 1, representing predicted probability. The bottom graph's y-axis represents the AI Index price. The x-axis for all graphs represents the date, ranging from October 2, 2021, to October 24, 2025.Crisis onset probability and AI Index price over the test period, 2021–10–02 to 2025–10–24. Top panel: isotonic-calibrated probability (left axis, range [0, 0.5]), threshold (dashed). Middle panel: raw model probability , threshold (dashed). Red-shaded regions: ground-truth crisis windows; dotted vertical lines: drawdown onsets. Green-filled regions with circle markers: anticipatory detections up to nine days prior to onset; orange-filled regions with diamond markers: confirmatory detections within five days after onset. Bottom panel: AI Index price (right axis)