Figure 5.
The x-axis spans from January 2018 to beyond January 2024, with labelled ticks at January 2018, January 2020, January 2022, and January 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 0.10, with intervals of 0.01. The plotted series fluctuates between about 0 and 0.035 during 2018, then remains near 0 for part of 2019. It rises gradually through 2019 and 2020, reaching about 0.025 before declining below 0.01. From 2021, the series rises strongly, exceeding 0.05 and reaching a maximum near 0.09 around early 2022. It then declines with fluctuations through 2022 and falls below 0.02 during 2023. From 2023 to 2024, values remain mostly between 0 and 0.02, with brief returns to 0. Two vertical dashed event markers appear in 2018 and 2019. The legend labels the main series as theta hat subscript 3 superscript D C C minus X subscript T P U and the dashed markers as Events.rolling window estimated coefficient (black line) from the model and break dates (dashed blue line, details in the text)