Figure 1.
The process has six numbered steps across three stages. The first stage, Qualitative Model Building, contains steps 1 and 2. Step 1, Problem Articulation, connects to theme selection, key variables, time horizon, and reference mode. It then proceeds to step 2, Formulation of Dynamics Hypothesis, which connects to initial hypothesis generation, endogenous focus, and mapping. The second stage, Quantitative Model Testing, contains steps 3 and 4. Step 3, Formulation of a Simulation Model, connects to specification of structure and decision rules, estimation of parameters and behavioural relationships, and tests for consistency. It then proceeds to step 4, Testing, which connects to comparison to reference modes, robustness, and sensitivity. The third stage, Policy Design and Discussion, contains steps 5 and 6. Step 5, Policy Design and Evaluation, connects to scenario specification and policy design. It then proceeds to step 6, Discussion and Summary.Research stages
Source: Authors’ own work