Figure 1
The image contains five line charts, each plotting quarterly observations from 2009 Q1 to 2021 Q4. Top left, TOM index (vertical axis 40 to 100): the index begins at its base value of 100 in the first quarter of 2009, falls sharply to its sample minimum of about 47 later that year, and recovers to roughly 70 by 2010. From 2010 to 2016 it oscillates in a repeating within-year pattern between about 60 and 82, then drifts upward, reaching quarterly peaks near 90 from 2018 onwards and ending at about 89. The sample mean is 75. Top right, News sentiment index (vertical axis −150 to 100): the series starts near +47 in early 2009 and falls to its sample minimum of about −128 during 2009, with a second deep trough in early 2010. It fluctuates around zero from 2010 to 2014, reaches its maximum of about +85 in late 2015, and stays predominantly positive, roughly between 0 and +50, from 2016 to 2021. The sample mean is −1.7. Middle left, Dwelling purchase intent, per cent (vertical axis 11 to 18): the share stays close to 13 per cent from 2009 to 2012, declines to a minimum of about 11.2 per cent in 2014, then rises steadily from 2016 to a maximum of about 17.1 per cent in 2020 and 2021, before falling back to about 15 per cent at the end of the period. The sample mean is 13.3 per cent. Middle right, Disposable income growth, per cent (vertical axis −3 to 4): growth is volatile from quarter to quarter around a small positive average of 0.35 per cent. It peaks at about 3.3 per cent in early 2009, with most observations between −1 and +1.5 per cent, and reaches its sample minimum of about −2.0 per cent in the final quarter of 2021. Bottom left, Euribor 12-month growth, per cent (vertical axis −400 to 300): the series is close to zero and mildly negative from 2009 to 2015. It then falls to its sample minimum of about −313 per cent around the turn of 2015–2016, immediately followed by its maximum of about +218 per cent. Further spikes of roughly +120 per cent in 2019 and +208 per cent in 2020 follow, and the series returns to near zero by the end of 2021. The sample mean is −1.4 per cent.Change in TOM index, news sentiment index, and control variables. Source: Authors’ own work