Figure 1
The diagram is divided into three layers: Geopolitical Situation, Transmission Mechanisms, and Development Trends. The top layer includes the Long-term Nature of Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Complexity of Middle East Geopolitics, and Bloc Fragmentation in Energy Trade. The middle layer shows five transmission mechanisms: Trade Restructuring Effect, Shipping Lane Disruption Effect, Operating Cost Escalation Effect, Policy Compliance Constraint Effect, and Market Expectation Volatility Effect. The bottom layer lists Development Trends: Regionalized Trade Patterns, Digitalized Shipping Operations, Long-distance-oriented Shipping Routes, Green-oriented Fleet Development, Structurally Differentiated Tanker Capacity, and Volatilization of Freight Rates.SMT analytical framework of geopolitical shocks