Figure 2
The figure shows nine rows, each containing five graphs. The first row depicts illit. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.19. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins slightly above 0, rises slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 20 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends around 0.3 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line, and then falls to negative 0.2. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.75. The second row depicts i n c 5. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.199. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins slightly above 0, rises slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 20 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends around 0.35 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line, and then falls to negative 0.2. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.8. The third row depicts c o m p 5. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.18. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins slightly above 0, rises slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 20 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends around 0.28 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line, and then falls to negative 0.2. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.7. The fourth row depicts g r 6 to 9. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.1. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins slightly above 0, rises slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 20 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.1. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends at 0.2 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line, and then falls to negative 0.12. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.55. The fifth row depicts middle. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.1. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 20 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.1. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends at 0.2 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line, and then falls to negative 0.15. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.55. The sixth row depicts i n c H S. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.12. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 20 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.199. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends at 0.22 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line, and then falls to negative 0.2. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.6. The seventh row depicts i n c H S. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.12. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 20 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.1. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends at 0.2 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line, and then falls to negative 0.2. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.55. The eighth row depicts i n c H E. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.02. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises very slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 14 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.02. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends at 0.12 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line for a short while, rises slightly and continues moving horizontally till 0.05. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.24. The ninth row depicts c o m p H E. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, continues horizontally, and ends at about negative 0.02. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.2 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises very slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 14 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.02. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from 0 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends at 0.1 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.6 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve moves very closely along the horizontal line. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.15. Note: All numerical values are estimated. The area around each curve is blue shaded, which depicts uncertainty bands at 68 percent.Impulse response functions of exogenous shocks (columns) on the net hiring by workers’ education level. The time horizon (horizontal axis) is 42 months, and the uncertainty bands are at 68% (blue). See Table A1 for variable descriptions. The results presented refer to the difference between hires and involuntary separation. The authors