Figure 3
The figure shows eleven rows, each containing five graphs. The first row depicts i n d E m p. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines slightly, and ends at 0 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, moves along the horizontal line at 12 on the horizontal axis, and falls slightly below to meet the vertical axis slightly below 0. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises slightly to 0.1 and then falls back to meet the vertical axis at 0. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, rises and then moves horizontally to meet 0.25. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.15. The second row depicts hire T o t. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.1 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises very slightly, falls across the horizontal line at 10 on the horizontal axis, and then reaches slightly below 0, and continues toward the right to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.2 The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, rises gradually, and ends around 0.22 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, and moves very closely along the horizontal line. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.5. The third row depicts s e p T o t. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0 and moves very closely along the horizontal line. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, moves along the horizontal line for a short while, and falls toward the lower right to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.15. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, and moves along the horizontal line. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line for a short while, and then rises to 0.4. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, moves along the horizontal line for a short while, and then declines gradually to end at around negative 0.2. The fourth row depicts hours. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines slightly, and ends at 0 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, moves along the horizontal line for a short while, declines and moves horizontally to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.15. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, rises gradually to peak at 0.2 at 20 on the horizontal axis, and falls symmetrically to end at 0.1 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, moves along the horizontal line for a short while, and then rises to meet the vertical axis at 0.3. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.4 on the vertical axis. The fifth row depicts cred G D P. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, moves along the horizontal line, and ends slightly above 0 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, moves along the horizontal line for a short while, and then falls to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.35. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, rises gradually, and ends at 0.2 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero and rises to end at 0.9 on the vertical axis. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends at negative 0.5 on the vertical axis. The sixth row depicts I P C trad The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.19 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises gradually and ends at 0.5 on the vertical axis. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, falls slightly, and then moves horizontally to meet the vertical axis slightly below 0. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero and then falls to negative 0.4 on the vertical axis. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, rises slightly to 0.2, falls across the horizontal line, and ends around negative 0.1 on the vertical axis. The seventh row depicts I P C n trad. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines gradually, and ends at about negative 0.2 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises gradually, and then moves horizontally to meet the vertical axis at 0.49. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from near zero, moves along the horizontal line till 20 on the horizontal axis, and then rises to 0.19 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, and falls gradually to end slightly below negative 0.5 on the vertical axis. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, rises gradually to 0.3, and falls symmetrically to end slightly above 0 on the vertical axis. The eighth row depicts retal. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, moves along the horizontal line till 20 on the horizontal axis, and rises to meet the vertical axis at 0.1. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, and falls to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.49. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, rises gradually, then moves horizontally ends at 0.12 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, and rises to 0.75 on the vertical axis. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 1.5 to 0 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.48 on the vertical axis. The ninth row depicts Cap U. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, declines slightly, continues horizontally, and ends slightly below 0 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, moves along the horizontal line for a short while, and then falls to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.15. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, rises gradually, and then falls to meet the vertical axis at 0.1. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve moves very closely along the horizontal line. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, declines gradually, and ends around negative 0.25 on the vertical axis. The tenth row depicts salary. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, rises gradually and ends at 0.15 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, falls slightly, and then continues horizontally to meet the vertical axis at negative 0.1. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, falls gradually, and meets the vertical axis at negative 0.09. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve starts from 0, and rises gradually to meet the vertical axis at 0.25. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, moves along the horizontal line till 10 on the horizontal axis, and rises gradually to meet the vertical axis at 0.45. The eleventh row depicts A u t P r o d. The first graph is titled “Monetary policy.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.4 to 0.4 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, falls gradually and ends at 0.02 on the vertical axis. The second graph is titled “Exchange rate.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from 0, moves along the horizontal line till 10, and falls to negative 0.1 on the vertical axis. The third graph is titled “Supply.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.2 to 0.6 in increments of 0.2 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins from zero, rises gradually, then moves horizontally, and meet the vertical axis at 0.15 on the vertical axis. The fourth graph is titled “Commodities.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve starts from 0, moves closely along the horizontal line, and slightly drop to meet the vertical axis slightly below 0. The fifth graph is titled “Expectation.” The horizontal axis has markings ranging from 10 to 40 in increments of 10 units. The right vertical axis shows markings ranging from negative 0.5 to 1 in increments of 0.5 units. A horizontal line extends from marking 0 on the right vertical axis. The curve begins at zero, falls down and meet the vertical axis at negative 0.25. Note: All numerical values are estimated. The area around each curve is blue shaded, which depicts uncertainty bands at 68 percent.Impulse response functions of exogenous shocks (columns). The time horizon (horizontal line) is 42 months, and the uncertainty bands are at 68% (blue). See Table A1 for a description of the variables. The authors