Figure 1
The figure shows a large rectangular box with the left side labeled “Awareness of the potential threats” and the upper side labeled “Understanding how the potential threats manifest.” The large box is divided into four smaller boxes arranged in two rows and two columns. The first row is labeled “Unknowable,” and the second row is labeled “Knowable.” The first column is labeled “Unambiguous,” and the second column is labeled “Ambiguous.” The top left quadrant under Row 1, “Unknowable,” and Column 1, “Unambiguous,” labeled “Unknown-Known” includes the text “Uncertainties that are unknowable but understood well enough to prepare for” with the example “Earthquake at supplier site, Suez canal crisis, escalation of some known political tensions.” The top right quadrant under Row 1, “Unknowable,” and Column 2, “Ambiguous,” labeled “Unknown-Unknown” includes the text “Uncertainties that is neither knowable nor understood” with the example “Covid pandemic, which was unthinkable until it led to a global lockdown, or the launch of a disruptive new product or technology, such as electric vehicles.” The bottom left quadrant under Row 2, “Knowable,” and Column 1, “Unambiguous,” labeled “Known-Known” includes the text “Uncertainties that are known and well understood” with the example “Expected supply or demand variability or uncertainties based on experience and historical patterns such as the manufacturing and sales of commodity type of components and products.” The bottom right quadrant under Row 2, “Knowable,” and Column 2, “Ambiguous,” labeled “Known-Unknown” includes the text “Uncertainties that are known but not well understood in terms of the patterns through which they might manifest” with the example “Variabilities in crop yield is knowable, but how they may impact S C P parameters such as safety stock levels, production capacity requirements, and others remain ambiguous.”A typology of SCP uncertainties. Source: Authors’ own work