Ceresana industry monitor: optimistic outlook despite economic head wind
Article Type: Industrial news From: Anti-Corrosion Methods and Materials, Volume 60, Issue 1
Mood in the chemicals and plastics industry continues to dampen. Persistent uncertainty due to the European Sovereign Debt crisis as well as rising prices for raw materials slows down economic growth. In Western Europe in particular a declining number of companies is expecting an improvement of the business situation on the short- or medium-term. However, expectations remain optimistic when seen at a global level: the majority of panel members expect their business situation to not change or even to improve within in the upcoming months.
CIM barometer falls to 4.0 points
For the present situation, Ceresana established a value of 2.8 per cent points. Thus, current evaluation of the situation fell by more than ten points compared to the beginning of the year (13.9 points in spring). Expectations are significantly more pessimistic than in the first two quarters of the year,reaching a value of 5.3 points. Even though the majority of companies interviewed by the market research institute was able to maintain profit margin at stable levels during the past 12 months and the situation regarding orders on hand is predominantly satisfying, more than half of the companies are reporting declining profit. Not least, significant increases of prices for raw materials are a reason for this development.
Information safeguards stable competitive positions
Given this decline of profit, it is highly important to remain competitive. The majority of panel members was able to maintain competitiveness on both the domestic markets as well as abroad. More than a quarter of interviewed companies even stated to have improved competitiveness within the previous six months. In doing so, enterprises mainly focus on customer loyalty and service, quality and design as well as technology and innovation. In order to reach an ideal market position, companies require a range of information in order to make their strategic and operative decisions. “Above all, knowledge regarding customer needs, suppliers and prospective customers as well as own brand and reputation are deemed very important by the panel members”, explains Oliver Kutsch, CEO of Ceresana.
Uncertainties regarding raw materials largest potential hazard
Finally, Ceresana was interested in what the companies regard as largest potential hazards for their businesses. Three quarters of panel members stated that strong increases and volatility of prices for raw materials is the largest risk, followed by the financial crisis, a collapse of the euro-zone, and currency fluctuations.
Methodology and participants
The Ceresana Industry Monitor (CIM) midsummer survey was carried out from 3 to 15 September 2012. Companies and associations of the chemical industry are asked to participate in our surveys every two months. The survey was answered by decision-makers from 41 countries. In order to provide a representative overall picture, companies of all sizes were asked about their current business situation and expectations. In addition to a general report, industry-specific analyses are conducted for following branches: basic chemistry, plastics and elastomer manufacturers, fine and specialty chemicals, plastics and elastomer processors as well as paints, varnishes and adhesives. Additionally, there will be a country-specific analysis for Germany from the late summer survey 2012 onwards.
The CIM barometer reflects the business climate of the chemical industry. Business situation, expectations, and the resulting barometer (business climate)are shown on a scale from −50 to +50.
It results from the number of positive answers minus the number of negative answers in the two categories “current business situation” and“expectations”. Positive figures indicate a good business climate;figures below 0 points suggest a downturn. In the final report, these values are illustrated for each individual region (Figure 5) (www.ceresana.com/en/cim).
