This paper aims to investigate how climatic, market and policy factors interact to determine food production in Togo. Specifically, we estimate acreage and yield response to market prices, weather and policy changes for maize and rice.
We use panel data estimators in a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Equation (SURE) model with region-level data from the Food and Agriculture Organization statistics department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US Department of commerce.
We found lower fertilizer price and higher grain price effects on maize acreage and yield. In addition, we found a positive effect of expected rice price on both its acreage and yield. As expected, rainfall during planting months has a significant impact on both maize (April) and paddy (May) acreage allocations. Similarly, total rainfall during the growing season has a positive impact on both maize and paddy yields. Moreover, recent agricultural policy initiative designed to boost domestic food production has significantly increased acreage and yield for maize, and yield for paddy, especially the strategy for agricultural growth.
The dataset includes region-level observations from 1991 to 2012 which limits the observation span. However, we had enough variability in key variables to determine the estimated coefficients.
Although the dataset is limited in time (1991–2012) and uses national-level output prices, this investigation reveals that cropland allocation to maize and rice is sensitive to fertilizer and grain prices, weather expectations and policy interventions. These findings provide evidence for sustainable food production and productivity enhancement in Togo.
Understanding drivers of cropland allocation and cereal yield contribute to better food security and poverty reduction in developing countries, especially Togo.
Prior to this study, little was known on the effect of price, climate and policy on cropland allocation in Togo. This investigation contributes significantly to filling this knowledge gap and provides insights for effective interventions.
