Use and abuse of statistics

My first illustration, intended to show some of the problems facing those of us who use statistics to convey information to others, comes not from transport, but involves a giraffe called Victor, whom you may recall some years back becoming the focus of the nation's concern when he fell on his knees after being moved to a new zoo. Giraffes are not designed to be on their knees; they always stand, awake and asleep; and Victor's life was in grave danger. The radio news reporter asked the vet what chance Victor had of surviving the attempt to put him on his feet again. ‘A 50/50 chance’, said the vet. Victor died. The next day the reporter was back and thus accused the vet: ‘You said he had a 50/50 chance and he's dead, so you were wrong, weren't you?’ It is hard to know how to deal with this level of ignorance of what numbers mean, but people's nervousness around statements of probability in particular can be, and frequently are, taken advantage of.