This study investigates how speculative cartographic methods can translate historical urban data into rule-based analytical structures for exploring long-term metropolitan transformation under Anthropocene conditions. Using Istanbul as a paradigmatic case of planetary urbanisation, the research develops the Anthropocene Istanbul Atlas to examine how architectural knowledge can interpret cumulative spatial change and generate alternative future trajectories grounded in empirical cartographic evidence.
The research reconstructs Istanbul's urban transformation between 1923 and 2026 through the reinterpretation of eleven historical maps, aerial photographs and satellite images. A three-phase methodology structured as (re)reading, (re)coding and (re)interpreting identifies five analytical dimensions: ecological systems, architectural typologies, infrastructural networks, socio-morphological indicators and megaprojects. Comparative cartographic analysis extracts persistent spatial rule sets, which are extended into four behavioural-based scenario families across temporal horizons of 2035, 2050 and 2100.
The analysis reveals four persistent dynamics: continuous typological and infrastructural expansion, ecological fragmentation, intensified socio-morphological aggregation and metropolitan-scale restructuring under saturation conditions. These dynamics generate three rule sets aligning typological growth with infrastructure, converting ecological surfaces into built programmes and concentrating socio-spatial flows along accessibility corridors. Scenarios demonstrate how persistence, adaptation, rescaling and disruption reorganise metropolitan morphology under alternative transformation trajectories.
The study proposes speculative mapping as a transferable architectural research methodology that integrates historical cartography, rule extraction and scenario construction within a single framework. By positioning mapping as an epistemic instrument linking archival evidence to future-oriented spatial reasoning, the Atlas advances cartographic methods for investigating urban futures beyond predictive modelling.
