This study aims to explore the complex interdependencies between country-level supply chain risk (SCR) and several specific risk categories, with a focus on anti-money laundering (AML) risk, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk, sustainable development goal (SDG) risk and sovereign risk. The objective is to enhance the understanding of how these broad risk categories contribute to supply chain vulnerabilities, which is essential for improving global supply chain resilience. Additionally, the study examines the connections between SCR and its key indicators and operational risk factors to provide a comprehensive framework for global risk management.
The study utilizes Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) to develop three models. The first model focuses on the relationship between SCR and broad risk categories, including AML, ESG, SDG and sovereign risk. The second model analyzes the connection between SCR and specific risk indicators, such as access to basic services, climate change and renewable energy, equality and inclusion, operational risk, the prevalence of corruption, quality of institutions and others. The third model examines operational risk indicators, including adequate data protection, economic wealth, ICT development, inflation rate, the logistics performance index and political stability. Data from 191 countries in 2022 were used to explore these relationships.
The analysis reveals significant interdependencies between SCR and the examined risk categories. AML and ESG risks are found to have a direct influence on supply chain vulnerabilities. Moreover, SCR is strongly impacted by indicators such as access to basic services, political stability, and the strength of human rights. In terms of operational risk, key influencing factors include data protection levels, GDP per capita, and logistics performance. These findings validate the hypothesis that SCR is directly linked to both broader risk categories and specific operational indicators, underscoring the need for integrated risk management strategies.
This research offers a novel contribution by mapping the complex relationships between SCR and various risk categories, including AML, ESG and specific operational factors. The application of BBNs provides a new perspective on understanding the interconnections between country-level risks and their impact on supply chain resilience. The study provides actionable insights for businesses and policymakers aiming to strengthen supply chain resilience in a globalized environment. It also lays the groundwork for future research to explore these relationships in different regions or industries, offering practical value for both theory and practice.
