Discussion Papers 3, 4, and 5

Mr N. LESTER (Transport 2000): With road traf

fic forecasts, estimated figures for 30 years1

time are very important because one of the major

uses they are put to is justifying the construc

tion of new roads. It is often asserted that

traffic forecasts are guides to the future, but

this is not true. They are merely guides to the

future given given the following major implied

assumptions. First, that there will be no major modal change. Second, that people1s

response to stimuli is the same over both the

short and long term. Third, and most important,

that there will be no major policy changes.