7. Recent developments in the methodology of seismic hazard assessment
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Published:1991
D. J. Mallard, BSc(Eng), MSc, MICE, FGS, I. E. Higginbottom, BSc, CGeol, FIGeol, CICE, FGS, R. Muir Wood, MA, PhD, FRGS, B. O. Skipp, BSc, PhD, FICE, FGS, FRSA, 1991. "7. Recent developments in the methodology of seismic hazard assessment", Civil engineering in the nuclear industry: Proceedings of the conference organized by the Institution of Civil Engineers and held in Windermere on 20–22 March 1991, R Dexter-Smith
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To establish design criteria matching the levels of safety appropriate to any nuclear facility required to withstand earthquakes, it is necessary to carry out a site-specific seismic hazard assessment. Since 1982, the Seismic Hazard Working Party (SHWP) has been responsible, formerly to the CEGB and now to Nuclear Electric, for developing and applying an overall methodology for such assessments. The paper describes the praxis of the SHWP and, in particular, the adoption of Bayesian concepts and use of a logic-tree formulation for all aspects of hazard model parameterisation. Although these methods have, so far, been applied primarily to potential power station or storage sites in Britain, they can be adapted for existing facilities (where appropriate hazard probability levels may be higher), or for disposal sites (where they may be lower), and they are applicable in any seismotectonic environment.
SYNOPSIS
INTRODUCTION
THE LOGIC-TREE METHOD
THE ROLE OF EXPERT JUDGEMENT
DATA ACQUISITION POLICY
INVESTIGATIVE STRATEGY FOR POTENTIAL NPP SITES IN BRITAIN
TREATMENT OF EARTHQUAKES
TREATMENT OF FAULTS
MODEL CONSTRUCTION
THE RESULTS OF SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
REFERENCES
