Fatality and Loss Models: Modern hydraulic modelling techniques warrant a better approach

While the technology and methods generally employed to determine the hydraulics of dam failures have advanced significantly over the last decade, a fatality model developed in 2004 for the Interim Guide is still commonly adopted. This was developed at a time when 2D Shallow Water Equation based hydrodynamic modelling techniques were only occasionally implemented. Since then this has become the industry standard approach for dam failure inundation studies.

Multiple hydrodynamic assessments of a UK reservoir have been undertaken for this paper in order to demonstrate the sensitivity of the fatality model to various hydrodynamic modelling techniques. The basis for a new disaggregated, coupled building damage and stochastic fatality model is broadly set out alongside an argument for the publication of new guidelines following the shift in industry focus to 2D modelling methods.