Chapter 5: Techniques for valuing adaptive capacity in flood risk management

There are many sources of uncertainty and drivers of future change that communities and decision makers could be better prepared for by adopting more adaptable plans to manage flood and erosion risks. It may not be possible to reduce uncertainty, at least in the short term, but recognising and accepting uncertainty and being better able to manage it can save money and help to reduce risk.

The capacity of organisations, institutions and individuals to adapt to changes in their wider environment varies considerably between and within sectors. This paper focuses upon improving the adaptive capacity of the flood and coastal erosion risk management (FCERM) industry in England (although the generic approaches are applicable elsewhere) through the development of practical approaches to support the appraisal of managed adaptive approaches. The characteristic timescales for investments in FCERM are of the order of 10–100 years. Over these timescales, uncertainties surrounding climatic and socio-economic changes can have a significant influence on the benefits that investment in FCERM can be expected to accrue. In fact, the uncertainties may be so great that it is hard to make the case for major investments now, other than by adopting a ‘precautionary’ approach, which may incur excessive costs. This chapter explains how the adoption of adaptive approaches, which build in flexibility, can help stakeholders react to future uncertainties as they materialise during the life of a project, which may prove to be more cost effective over the long term.