2: Theory of Change as Model Building: Identifying Contexts and Mechanisms as Our Focus for Evaluation

The aim of this chapter is to connect thinking abound causal modelling and the development of Theory of Change (ToC) approaches to evaluation in widening participation research. The chapter explores the different kinds of ways in which causal mechanisms can be modelled within a ToC informed evaluation. It also draws on generative conceptualisations of causation in applied social research to emphasise the importance of the specific contexts (who, where, when and what) in which these relationships or mechanisms will or will not occur. From here it considers the process of generating testable hypotheses, introducing a range of ToC related heuristics and thinking tools that can be used to this end. Using an aggregate example, drawn from actual practice, the chapter also provides an example of how ToC informed evaluations can help to refine our understanding of the mechanisms and the contexts required for widening participation interventions to achieve their objectives. Finally, it makes the case for the vital role of practitioners in knowledge generation and argues that they should be embedded as an integral part of the evaluation process from the outset.