3: Using Theory of Change to Enhance Evaluation and Evidence

This chapter describes the benefits for evaluation and practice in using a theory of change approach. The context is local programmes aiming to address gaps in young higher education (HE) participation. We use the example of Uni Connect (formerly the National Collaborative Outreach Programme (NCOP)), which was introduced in England to address under-representation in HE with delivery across 29 locally based consortia. A strong conceptual rationale for funded local activity is especially important in the context of this policy programme given the sheer size and investment of the initiative and its ambition for large scale transformation HE participation. From 2019 onwards, local consortia were instructed to develop a detailed logic model (i.e. at micro-activity level) describing how the anticipated outcomes being delivered were mapped to local and national objectives. They were then invited to go further in explaining the theoretical underpinnings of their programmes through expressing a theory of change approach. This approach acknowledged that theory of change models are potentially superior to simple logic models for capturing complex interrelationships between different elements of complex programmes and can also articulate assumptions underpinning the ‘logic’. We argue that using a theory of change has helped to strengthen the design and delivery of local activities within the programme design, better considered evaluation planning and more robust local outcome measures.