Decentralization and Military Coups

We develop a multiperiod contest theory model to formulate the role of decentralization in coups decision and outcome. In our model the coup plotter chooses between carrying out a coup and subordination, the central government responds by fighting against the plotter, and the local government chooses whether to confront the military government after a successful coup. The model shows that more decentralized countries will experience longer military regime after a successful coup, but the relationship between decentralization and the risk of coups is nonmonotonic. We suggest that there may exist negative consequences of decentralization: Depending on the initial conditions, decentralization may increase the coup risks and jeopardize political stability.