Chapter 1: Path Stock Structural Changes and Forecasts in the Context of the Ukrainian War

The objective of this chapter is to analyse the performance of the UiPath (PATH) company on the New York Stock Exchange, in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and to predict the closing price of the PATH stock using autoregressive integrated moving average with (ARIMAX) and without (ARIMA) exogenous variable methods and autoregressive neural networks (NNAR, NNARX).

UiPath has gained a significant reputation in the IT market and has become a point of interest in recent years. However, the current context is marked by an event of international impact, the war between Russia and Ukraine. In this context, this analysis will consider performance from two perspectives: forecasts of the closing price and forecasts of the closing price with an exogenous variable, namely the war between Russia and Ukraine.

In the analysis that follows, we will address a forecast of the stock closing price using ARIMA, ARIMAX, NNAR and NNARX, as well as analysis of changing points and structural breaks of the series.

The changing points in the mean and variance but also the breaks in the structure justify the course of the closing price. From the information extracted in the analysis, it can be concluded that market sentiment is currently pessimistic due to the downward trend in the price. Both the public and the shareholders are disappointed with the performance of PATH stock and are waiting for the next change point that will change the trend of the series.