Chapter 4: Dutch Disease in Central and Eastern European Countries

The main aim of this chapter is to analyse whether recent economic developments in Central and Eastern European countries have been subjected to a typical process of Dutch Disease (DD). We investigate the impact of foreign aid and other external inflows on the economies of these countries through their effect on the real exchange rate (RER).

After a review of the literature on the DD, we apply robust new generation augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests, and autoregressive distributed lag models following the methodology of Arellano and Bond (1991) and Blundell and Bond (1998) to establish the impact of capital inflows on output growth for the period 2003–2013.

We find no significant role for financial costs in the determination of the RER in the integration process of these countries. The evidence supports a positive influence of external capital inflows, and in particular European structural funds, on the determination of RER. This positive influence also extends to non-tradable goods and public investments.

In order to promote medium-long run sustainability, Central and Eastern European countries should carefully apply European funds in a way that does not bring about higher internal prices, or, if possible, control the nominal exchange rate in accordance. They must invest more in the higher qualification of human resources, research and development, innovation, entrepreneurship and industrial clusters, in view of the development of the tradable sector.

It is the first chapter that analyses the presence of DD originated by European structural funds and external inflows of funds for this group of countries.