The role of stated intentions in new product purchase forecasting

In this paper, we develop four models to investigate the role of intentions (stated and true) and explanatory variables in forecasting purchase based on the social psychology view that true intentions determine purchase behavior. We found that a weighted average of stated intentions together with the complementary FED variables are powerful indicators of future purchase behavior. For intention survey designers, these results imply that a conversion scale is needed to convert stated intentions to true intentions and intentions questions would yield more useful information if it is formulated in terms of probabilities rather than in terms of yes/no answers.