Chapter 12: Paving New Ground: A Markov Chain Model of the Change in Transportation Networks and Land Use

It has long been a mantra among planners that transportation policies and networks drive land use and it has also been a mantra among civil engineers that networks are built where the people are. Can it be that both are right?

Since the widespread introduction of paved roads early in the twentieth century, more and more roads, of higher and higher quality and capacity have been constructed. However, despite the growth in transportation networks, there has been even more growth in the demand for transportation networks. Vehicle kilometers traveled has outpaced lane kilometers in most cities (e.g. the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul (Levinson and Karamalaputi, 2003)). This has led to significant increases in congestion, and over time, falling speeds on many links (TTI, 2002). This leads many in the engineering community to believe that when they are building roads, they are simply responding to existing needs.