7: Reliability Assessment on Transit Network Services

This paper attempts to assess the transit service reliability with taking into account the interaction between network performance and passengers' travel choice behaviors. Besides the well-known schedule reliability, a waiting-time reliability is newly defined as the probability that the passengers' average waiting time is less than a given threshold. A Monte Carlo simulation approach, which incorporates a stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment model with explicit capacity constraints and elastic frequencies, is proposed to estimate the above two reliability measures of transit service. A numerical example is used to illustrate the applicability of the reliability measures and the proposed approach.