THE NETWORK RELIABILITY OF TRANSPORT

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1ST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON TRANSPORTATION NETWORK RELIABILITY (INSTR)

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THE NETWORK RELIABILITY OF TRANSPORT

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1ST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON TRANSPORTATION NETWORK RELIABILITY (INSTR)

EDITED BY

MICHAEL G.H. BELL

Imperial College London, UK

YASUNORI IIDA

Kyoto University, Japan

United Kingdom — North America — Japan

India — Malaysia — China

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK

First edition 2003

Copyright © 2016 Emerald Group Publishing Limited

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying issued in the UK by The Copyright Licensing Agency and in the USA by The Copyright Clearance Center. No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of information contained in the text, illustrations or advertisements. The opinions expressed in these chapters are not necessarily those of the Editor or the publisher.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-1-78-635954-4

The reliability of transportation networks has become an increasingly important issue as sustained economic growth and improvements to the quality of life around the world lead to increases in the value of time. Consequently, schedules and routes need to be able to accommodate the unexpected, like accidents, disasters or traffic flow fluctuations, with as little loss in operational efficiency as possible. Sources of unreliability include variation of demand and supply. People in the 21st century will desire a more stable transportation system with less travel time uncertainty. It is widely expected that network reliability analysis will play a more important role in the planning, design and management of transportation facilities and networks in the future.

The First International Symposium on Transport Network Reliability (INSTR) was held at Kyoto International Community House, Kyoto, Japan on 31st, July and 1st, August in 2001. The aim of the symposium was to bring together researchers and professionals interested in transportation network reliability to discuss both recent research topics and future directions in this expanding research field. Fifty-five persons participated and thirty-eight papers were presented from all over the world.

This book, The Network Reliability of Transport, is an outcome of the symposium, consisting of twenty-four selected papers. It covers various aspects of transport network reliability, such as definitions and methodological developments for reliability indices, behavioural analysis under uncertainty, evaluation methods for the disaster resistance of transport networks, and simulation / observation of travel time reliability. We believe that this book successfully encapsulates current understanding of transport network reliability and will become a useful reference for future research activities.

Yasunori Iida

Chairperson, Organising Committee of the first INSTR

Professor, Kyoto University, Japan

Michael G. H. Bell

Chairperson, International Scientific Committee of the first INSTR

Professor, Imperial College London, United Kingdom

September, 2002

Takamasa AkiyamaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Gifu University, Gifu, Japan
Zarko AndjicGabites Porter Consultants, Christchurch, New Zealand
Yasuo AsakuraGraduate School of Science and Technology, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
Katsuhiko AsaokaOsaka Port Transport System Co., Ltd., Osaka, Japan
Michael G H BellCentre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London, UK, London, UK
Katja BerdicaRoyal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
Chris CassirInstitute for Transport Research, DLR Berlin, Germany
Anthony ChenDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, USA
Erica Dalziellvivas ltd, Strategic Risk Management Consultants, London, UK
Glen M D’EstePPK Environment and Infrastructure, Brisbane, Australia
Satoshi FujiiDepartment of Civil Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
Eiji HatoCivil and Environmental Eng., Ehime University, Matsuyama, Japan
Hitoshi IedaDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Yasunori IidaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Kensuke IkedaToyota Motors Ltd., Toyota, Japan
Hiroshi InouyeHimeji Institute of Technology, Himeji, Japan
Zhaowang JiDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, USA
Hiroyuki KamedaDisaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan
Masuo KashiwadaniCivil and Environmental Eng., Ehime University, Matsuyama, Japan
Seiichiro KawarataniOMRON Corporation, Osaka, Japan
Shinya KikuchiDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Delaware, Delaware, USA
Ryuichi KitamuraDepartment of Civil Engineering Systems, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Fumitaka KurauchiDepartment of Civil Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Tsz Hang LamDepartment of Civil Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong, P. R China
William H. K. LamDepartment of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, P.R China
Yung - Lung LeeDepartment of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University, Taiwan, R. O. C.
David LevinsonDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, USA
Yan LiRitsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Oita, Japan
Anthony D. MayInstitute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Alan J NicholsonDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Keiichi OgawaDepartment of Environment Systems Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Shiga, Japan
Will ReckerInstitute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Irvine, USA
Jan-Dirk SchmöckerTransport Operations Research Group, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Simon P. ShepherdInstitute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Hirofumi ShimadaMinistry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Tokyo, Japan
Masumi SuganumaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Agachai SumaleeInstitute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Mei-Lam TamDepartment of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, P.R China
Wilson H. TangDepartment of Civil Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong, P. R China
Eiichi TaniguchiDepartment of Civil Engineering Systems, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Michael A P TaylorTransport Systems Centre, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
Hiroshi TsukaguchiDepartment of Environment Systems Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Shiga, Japan
Nobuhiro UnoDepartment of Civil Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Hiroshi WakabayashiFaculty of Urban Science, Meijo University, Kani, Japan
Tadashi YamadaDepartment of Social and Environmental Engineering, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Japan
Hai YangDepartment of Civil Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong, P. R China
Kuang - Yih YehDepartment of Urban Planning, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan, R. O. C.
Yafeng YinInstitute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, USA
Lei ZhangDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, USA
Henk J van ZuylenDelft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands