20: Estimating Benefits of Travel Demand Management Schemes with Uncertainty of Travel Times

This paper presents models for evaluating effects of implementing TDM schemes on road traffic with the consideration of uncertainty of travel times. The models are composed of drivers' behavioural model for identifying the optimal starting time and route with the designated time for arrival at the destination as well as dynamic traffic simulation model for estimating the change of travel times. A case study for applying the models on a test road network showed that TDM schemes of park and ride systems and road pricing enabled drivers to obtain benefits by improving the reliability of travel times as well as benefits by reducing travel times.