Chapter 36: Stimulating Modal Shift

This chapter is written against a background in which the private car is most travelers’ mode of preference because it meets their perceived need for convenience, freedom, security, privacy, and status. The use of cars is increasing in most countries, while walking, cycling, and the use of public transport is generally declining. In the UK, for example, the 1990s saw an 11% increase in the distance traveled by car, an 11% reduction in the distance traveled by local bus, and a 20% reduction in the distance walked (UK Department for Transport, 2003).

These trends coincide with reductions in the real (wage rate adjusted) cost of car ownership and use and increases in the real cost of public transport use. These underlying cost trends are likely to continue because technological change and globalization bring reductions in the costs of car ownership and use while the price of public transport is more closely tied to the rising costs of labor. Recognizing this, the UK government's 10 year plan for transport (UK Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions, 2000) assumed that, by 2010, the real cost of motoring would fall by 20% while the cost of bus and rail journeys would remain fairly constant. Nonetheless, the plan sought to achieve a reduction in congestion, a 10% growth in bus passenger journeys, a 50% growth in rail passenger-kilometers, and a tripling in the number of cycle trips. It is against this background of government aspirations to overcome adverse trends that we discuss methods to achieve changes in the modal split.