Forecasting Treatment Outcomes for the Futures Drug and Alcohol Rehabilitation Center

This is the second in a series of papers focused on alcohol and substance abuse rehabilitation centers. Centers face the ongoing challenge of validating outcomes to meet the burden of evidence for insurance companies. In the first paper, data mining was used to establish baseline patterns in treatment success rates, for the Futures: Palm Beach Rehabilitation Center, that have a direct impact on a client’s ability to receive insurance coverage for treatment programs. In this paper, we examine 2016 outcomes and report on facility efficacy, alumni progression and sobriety, and forecast treatment success rates (short and long term) in support of client insurability. Data collection has been standardized and includes admissions data, electronic medical records data, satisfaction survey data, post-discharge survey data, Centers for Disease Control (CDC) data, and demographic data. Clustering, partitioning, ANOVA, stepwise regression and stepwise Logistic regression are applied to the data to determine statistically significant drivers of treatment success.