Is there a Home Run Derby Curse?

This chapter analyzes the aggregate performance of Home Run Derby competitors’ performance both before and after the Home Run Derby for the time period 1999–2013. Regression to the mean suggests that in general, those players with outstanding performances in the first half of the season will regress to the mean. The findings here are consistent with regression to the mean, and the mean performance along four key analytics is statistically significantly worse for the competitors. However, the winners’ mean performance both before and after the Home Run Derby are not statistically significantly different. Thus, the results are consistent with previous research, but the results also find so-called “winner and loser” effects in Major League Baseball.