The Profitability and Performance Measurement of U.S. Regional Banks Using the Predictive Focus of the “Fundamental Analysis Research”

This paper examines the profitability and performance measurement of U.S. regional banks during the period 1994–2011, using the GMM estimator technique. Our study extends prior research by including several factors not previously considered using U.S. data.

We use bank-specific, industry-specific, and macroeconomic determinants of profitability contemporaneous with our performance indicators. We follow the accounting fundamental analysis path in explaining the bank performance.

Among the performance measures, the efficiency ratio and provisions for credit losses are negatively and equity scaled by assets is positively related to profitability. However, these relationships either reverse (efficiency ratio and provisions for credit losses) or become insignificant (equity scaled by assets) when the target becomes change in profitability. The level of nonperforming assets is negatively related to profitability across all measures of profitability used. Macroeconomic variables are largely unrelated to profitability during the year they are measured. However, they have a significant relationship with earnings change measures, suggesting they have a lagged effect on profitability. The slope of the yield curve is especially strong in this regard.

We use our determinants to model changes in bank profitability one year ahead, in addition to including several factors not previously considered, using the predictive focus of the fundamental analysis research.