Chapter 12: Trends in Cohabitation and Marriage by Experience of Economic Vulnerability in The United States^*

Non-marital cohabitation is increasingly common in the United States and entry into marriage is less common. Cohabitation and marriage trends vary by demographic characteristics but less is known about how social welfare program participation relates to these trends. Means-tested programs differ in whose income counts toward eligibility, and policy differences may influence decisions to cohabit, marry, or remain single. I use data from the 2007–2023 waves of the Current Population Survey (CPS) to estimate trends in cohabitation and marriage, examining how economic vulnerability and social welfare program participation relate to these trends. Consistent with previous research, I find cohabitation increases over time and marriage decreases. Yet, trends vary based on poverty status and program participation. Predicted probabilities for cohabitation are flat or declining among those experiencing economic vulnerability but increasing for those with greater resources. Larger decreases in predicted probabilities of marriage are seen for those in poverty or receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Medicaid, rent subsidies, or energy subsidies; decreases are smaller for those in public housing. Results demonstrate the utility of considering multiple measures of economic vulnerability in assessing trends in family formation and suggest the importance of considering how eligibility requirements for social welfare programs may influence family formation.