Analyzing China's Low Fertility Rate From the Social Activity Perspective

In an attempt to rectify the four decades of stringent population control policy, China has drastically changed its population policy to encourage more childbirths. However, the fertility promotion policy has not been effective, and fertility rate and population continue to decline. Most researchers investigating the reasons behind China's low fertility have focused on investigating the influences of traditional variables such as education and income over household fertility decisions. We add to the existing literature by offering a new perspective considering the effects of social activities on fertility rate. We discuss the distinction between social and non-social activities and their potential impact on fertility rates. We hypothesize that the growth of non-social activities in modern society, prompted by new entertainment venues and lifestyles, has reduced the time for young people to engage in social activities and interactions, which may lead to a decline in household formation and fertility rates. The data used in this study is the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS). This is a survey jointly conducted by Renmin University and other academic institutions in China since 2003. We use machine-learning methodology to identify and consolidate effective variables for empirical analysis. We find that some activities such as having a cell phone and surfing the internet have a significant negative impact on fertility inclination.