Chapter 2: Curve Estimation Approaches Using Matlab for a Solar Energy Project in Türkiye

The study is called for to eliminate the noise between the significant macro variables from the perspective of the cause-and-effect approach to indicate why and how the return of solar projects is being affected by these.

The study aims to investigate the spread between unit selling electricity prices of a monthly production of 250 KW solar project installed in Türkiye and USD/TRY.

A relational framework is designed by drawing on the variables determined as crude oil prices, United States (US) 2-year yield, Dollar Index (DXY), USD/TRY, the annual inflation rate of Türkiye, and unit selling electricity prices. Then, a multivariate approach is performed through Matlab to analyse the correlational relationships and structure the curve estimation models.

The observations show that the gradually rising spread between unit selling electricity price and USD/TRY signals the reduction in return-on-investment rate of solar energy projects because of the particular causes of the European energy crisis by the reason of Russia and Ukraine war and escalating risks in DXY and US treasury yields as a result of federal fund rate hikes against inflationary pressures. Solar energy investments are delicate instruments to global oil shocks and higher DXY in controlling Inflation and currency volatility; therefore, resilient policies should solicit the demand because of environmental and economic reasons to reduce the external dependency of Türkiye.