Tracking Pupils Into Adulthood: Selective Schools and Long-Term Human Capital

We explore the effect of selective schooling, where students are assigned to different schools by ability, on adult health, well-being and labour market outcomes. We exploit the 1960s transition from a selective to a non-selective secondary schooling system in England and Wales. The introductio3n of mixed-ability schools decreased average school quality and peer ability for high-ability pupils, while it increased them for low-ability pupils. We therefore distinguish between two treatment effects: that of high-quality school attendance for high-ability pupils and that of lower-quality school attendance for low-ability pupils, with mixed-ability schools as the alternative. We address selection bias by balancing individual pre-treatment characteristics via entropy balancing, followed by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Selective schooling does not affect long-term health and well-being, while it marginally raises hourly wages, compared to a mixed-ability system, and school aspirations for high-ability pupils. Cognitive and non-cognitive abilities measured prior to secondary school are significantly and positively associated with all adult outcomes.