Chapter 16: Relationship Between Urban Development and Economic Growth in Vietnam: A Cointegration Analysis With Structural Breaks

This study examines the contribution of urban development to Vietnam's economic progress over the period 1986–2020. The study uses an augmented Solow framework, where urbanization is included as a shift variable in addition to capital per worker and accounts for structural breaks. It examines the cointegration and the long-run and short-run effects of urban development from four different cases of cointegration (constant, restricted constant, restricted trend and trend options), with each case accounting for the effect of a significant structural break. Also, the study provides causality nexus to check the presence of urbanization-led growth hypothesis. From the results, we note a long-run positive effect of urbanization on economic growth, but no short-run effects. In all cases, a 1% increase in population results in 0.8–0.9 increase of output, hence supporting a positive and momentous effect of urbanization over the long-term. We note a significant positive effect of a single structural break period (1991), which is a period of major shift towards economic progress. We note bidirectional causality between capital and output and a unidirectional causality from output and capital to urbanization. The former suggests a mutually reinforcing effect of capital accumulation and economic growth, and the latter indicates that urban development necessitates economic growth and capital accumulation. The findings derived from this study provide further impetus for urban development and urban policies and consider urbanization as a critical source of economic growth for Vietnam.